As Clay's Population Expands, School Enrollment Remains Flat

At the Tuesday, June 17th, School Board Workshop, the school district painted a picture of enrollment trends. The Family and Community Engagement (FACE) leaders spoke to the school board members, who were advised that year-over-year enrollment is flat and that enrollment numbers have fallen short of district projections the past two years.

The FACE team explains that the alleged reason for the shortfall is vouchers from the state government that allow parents to opt for lesser options to educate their children. Here’s a video of the portion of the FACE team presentation discussing enrollment:

In fairness to the FACE team, the data on student enrollment can be complex and hard to decipher. The Florida Department of Education offers two data points, fall enrollment and spring enrollment. The fall enrollment data shows an enrollment decrease of less than one percent, while the spring data shows a year-over-year increase of 1.65% (650 students) and a fall-to-spring increase of 2.25% (882 students).

The focus on minute percentages compared to the nearly forty thousand students in the county might seem odd until you remember that enrollment drives funding from the state budget each year. The state provided school districts with $8958.59 per student for the 24-25 school year. So even a comparatively small increase of 882 students equates to a large funding increase to the school district—$7.9 million.

The overall population of Clay County has increased by 17,804 people since 2020, which amounts to 8.1%. During the same period, enrollment in Clay County schools has increased by 852 students, or 2.23%, well below the overall population growth.

The reason for the comparatively flat enrollment is, per the school district, vouchers from the state. In Florida, school vouchers, officially known as the Family Empowerment Scholarship Program, allow students to use public funds to attend private schools. The program was expanded in 2023 to make vouchers available to all K-12 students, regardless of income or prior public school attendance.

Per the FACE team’s presentation, voucher usage has increased 53% since the 21-22 school year:

According to the data in the slide above, 11,304 students attended some form of schooling outside of the Clay County School District in the 24-25 school year. The voucher students, plus the 39,116 students enrolled in county schools, bring the total number of students in Clay to 50,420.

This means 22% of the county's possible students choose not to attend Clay District Schools, which amounts to over $100 million in lost funding for the school district.

While the FACE team is correct in stating there is no current mass exodus from Clay Schools, it is also accurate that nearly a quarter of the county's families with students choose not to send their children to public schools. And it is also true that public school enrollment is not growing as fast as the county's general population.

The FACE team’s presentation did not delve into the reasons for the growth disparity but painted a negative picture of alternatives. While some may view school choice as a slight against public schools, others view it as a needed outlet for parents and families whose needs, for better or worse, cannot be met by the public school system.

While the voucher system can be abused, overall, it has benefited hundreds of thousands of students across Florida. Clay County’s school board is currently filled with board members who have advocated for and supported school choice as a valid option, along with public schools.